Toyota and Ford exports from South Africa plummet
South Africa's vehicle export figures are beginning to reflect a significant slowdown in demand from overseas markets.
Toyota and Ford recorded over 30% fewer exports year-on-year in the first four months of 2026, according to data from the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers (Naamsa).
Across the six biggest vehicle manufacturers in South Africa, exports between January and April were down 10% from 127,022 units in 2025 to 114,629 in 2026.
The figure is roughly the same as in 2021, when vehicle manufacturing was constrained due to a global chip shortage.
Toyota, Ford, Nissan, and Mercedes-Benz exported substantially fewer cars in the year-to-date than over the same period in 2025.
Nissan’s sales dropped 27%, although it should be noted it is winding down operations in preparation for handing over its plant to Chery. Toyota and Ford’s exports declined by 34% and 33%, respectively.
The companies have come under pressure in several key export markets, particularly Australia and New Zealand, where Chinese bakkies have seen significant traction.
In the first five months of 2026, Toyota’s sales in Australia declined from 110,753 to 76,017. Over the same period, Chinese automaker BYD more than doubled its sales from 15,199 to 33,454.
The new energy vehicle brand surpassed all but Toyota in sales rankings over the last two months, fuelled by demand for fully electric and plug-in hybrids amid the fuel price crisis.
Other Chinese car brands, such as Chery, GWM, JAC, Omoda, and MG Motor, have also recorded substantial growth in Australia.
Although Volkswagen South Africa recorded a 5% increase in exports of its Polo models, the surge may be short-lived.
The German auto giant recently began selling its fully electric ID Polo in Europe and the United Kingdom, the two biggest markets for exported petrol-powered Polos.
With a starting price just €2,000 (R38,000) higher than the entry-level petrol-powered Polo in Europe, it offers a far better value proposition.
Petrol car sales have plummeted in Europe in 2026 as the prices of fully electric cars have started to reach parity with petrol models, particularly in the used market.
Automotive and transport industry experts have warned that South Africa’s carmaking industry faces collapse unless it pivots towards NEV manufacturing.
One source in the transport sector told MyBroadband that legacy manufacturers were aware that they cannot compete with Chinese carmakers on EV prices.
These companies stand to make bigger profits on petrol and diesel models, with components and manufacturing processes far more developed and cost-effective.
“In markets where they can avoid encouraging increased EV uptake, they are doing this intentionally,” our source said.
“The longer they can keep selling internal combustion engine vehicles, the bigger their short-term profits.”
They explained that it would be very difficult for legacy manufacturers to produce NEVs in South Africa competitively. “Perhaps a more likely scenario is Chinese OEMs doing so.”
“This would depend on a large enough local market to justify local assembly. It is questionable whether they would invest in complete knockdown assembly over lower value semi-knockdown assembly.”
The source believed that import tariffs would likely play a major role in the future existence of South Africa’s vehicle export market.
If European and United Kingdom tariffs on direct Chinese exports remained high, South Africa’s preferential tariff treatment could attract Chinese car factories.
However, the South African industry is also facing a major threat from another African player — Morocco — which recently became the continent’s top carmaker.
In addition to having extensive government support for NEV manufacturing, Morocco is much closer to Europe. That reduces vehicle shipping costs, supporting lower consumer pricing or higher margins.
